Analysis

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom

Hawaii’s economic expansion continues. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. We will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation.

December 13, 2024

Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag

Soaring inflation and weak exports have undercut Japanese growth. Where do things stand at present, and what is the likely path forward in the near term and longer run?

May 21, 2024

The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth

US inflation receded rapidly in 2023 without large-scale labor market pain. In part this reflects growth in the supply side of the economy. How might artificial intelligence (AI) and other factors affect US growth over the long term?

February 21, 2024

How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.)

Try to tell people that we are not in a recession and they will disagree. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. But a recession is a very particular thing.

September 26, 2024

Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth

Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Maui rebuilding and the return of international travelers will support tourism, and robust construction will continue.

May 10, 2024

Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?

Financial markets expect many more interest rate cuts this year than does the Fed. Could the markets be right? What would have to happen for the Fed to cut rates that much in 2024?

January 19, 2024

UHERO Forecast for Hawaii: Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growth

Maui will only gradually recover from the wildfires, but the other counties will have favorable conditions. Hawaii’s trend growth will be slower than in the past because of limited population and labor force growth.

September 20, 2024

Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends

Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year.

February 23, 2024

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins

Hawaii has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and a glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key markets will cause slowing in 2024.

December 15, 2023

Analysis

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