Analysis

Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year.

February 23, 2024

Hawaii has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and a glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key markets will cause slowing in 2024.

December 15, 2023

The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future.

September 22, 2023

US inflation receded rapidly in 2023 without large-scale labor market pain. In part this reflects growth in the supply side of the economy. How might artificial intelligence (AI) and other factors affect US growth over the long term?

February 21, 2024

What is the US economy's "speed limit?" How will it change in coming years, and might it be increased? What does the speed limit tell us about pending unemployment change?

November 8, 2023

A number of factors are driving Maui jobless claims higher. Together, they add up to a staggering hit to Maui County employment.

September 7, 2023

Financial markets expect many more interest rate cuts this year than does the Fed. Could the markets be right? What would have to happen for the Fed to cut rates that much in 2024?

January 19, 2024

Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of income is moderate by historical standards. But the surge in interest rates means the burden is rising.

September 28, 2023

In this report we try to identify the scope and scale of the wildfires’ impacts and lay out in broad terms key areas of challenge that will need to be addressed.

August 31, 2023