BYRON GANGNES, PhD
News & Events
When is economic growth too strong?
What is the US economy's "speed limit?" How will it change in coming years, and might it be increased? What does the speed limit tell us about pending unemployment change?
Jobless claims reveal staggering employment cost of Maui wildfires
A number of factors are driving Maui jobless claims higher. Together, they add up to a staggering hit to Maui County employment.
How high are interest rates really?
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply over the past fifteen months, and Fed officials have signaled that perhaps two more quarter point hikes are coming...
No credit card binge, but burdens are rising
Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of income is moderate by historical standards. But the surge in interest rates means the burden is rising.
After the Maui Wildfires: The Road Ahead
In this report we try to identify the scope and scale of the wildfires’ impacts and lay out in broad terms key areas of challenge that will need to be addressed.
Is inflation going the Fed’s way? Depends where you’re looking.
The Fed’s war on inflation has been underway for more than a year. Interest rates have been driven up sharply, with consequences...
UHERO Forecast: Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy
Our third-quarter UHERO forecast for the Hawaii economy is out today. In our first forecast since the fires, we assess the implications of the fires’ aftermath…
Are stock investors crazy?
Stock prices are at a very high level, and yet investors have not pulled back. What gives? How should we think about stock market values? ...
When banks go boom: Footloose deposits, regulatory failure, and the SVB crisis
Banking can be a risky business. A bank keeps only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves, turning the rest into income-earning assets...